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Tuesday, August 19, 2008 2:23 PM
from daily kos
Miami-Dade's Democratic resurgence
Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 03:06:15 PM PDT
Check out the numbers in Miami-Dade this year alone, from January to August:
January 1, 2008:
Total Dem Rep
White 263,649 119,026 85,021
Black 217,371 178,878 9,278
Hispanic 535,188 138,622 252,896
Total 1,083,720 459,370 360,458
August 1, 2008 (PDF):
Total Dem Rep
White 271,244 123,603 86,406
Black 239,486 200,666 9,358
Hispanic 581,069 164,529 260,222
Total 1,169,252 515,545 369,771
Of 85,532 new registered voters in the south Florida county,
56,175 were Democrats, only 9,313 were Republican. That is, 66 percent
of new registration were Democratic, only 11 percent were Republican
(the rest were third party and "no party affiliation").
Even more incredible is the shift in the Latino voter away from the
GOP. Of the 45,881 new Hispanic voters, only 7,236, or 16 percent,
registered Republican. 25,907, or 56 percent, registered Democratic.
The ranks of registered African American has grown by over 10 percent. And sure, Republicans picked up 80 of them, but another 22,035 of them slotted in with the Democrats.
Want to see how far Democrats have come? Let's go back to January 2000:
Total Dem Rep
White 269,642 133,719 92,191
Black 160,934 139,114 6,921
Hispanic 354,009 86,682 203,403
Total 811,599 370,404 309,915
In 2000, Democrats had a roughly 60,000-vote advantage in the
region. Today, it's 146,000. In 2000, 57 percent of Latinos (mostly
Cuban Americans) registered Republican, while only 24 percent
registered Democratic. That gap has closed significantly today, to 48
percent Republican, 28 percent Democratic. I'd bet quite a bit that the
swelling ranks of Latino "no party affiliation" are full of closeted
Democrats too ashamed to tell their hard-core Republican parents of
their true party sympathies.
This obviously has huge repercussions in several races this fall. At
the top of the ticket, Obama will obviously benefit from the increased
Democratic performance in the region, and his continued voter
registration efforts in Miami-Dade are epic. The campaign plans to
squeeze out every last Democrat possible. But lower on the ballot,
these numbers have benefits to our three South Florida Democratic
challengers in FL-18, FL-21, and FL-25. None of these districts reside
entirely within the boundaries of Miami-Dade, but the bulk of their
voters do live in that county. Let's see how those district have
changed from January 2008 to August 2008 (PDF):
In FL-18, O2B Democrat Annette Taddeo is taking on Illeana Ros-Lehtinen in an R+4.3 district (Bush won it 54-46 in 2004):
Jan Aug
Republican 107,295 109,562
Democrat 89,289 102,433
Total R+18,006 R+7,129
In FL-21, Democrat Raul Martinez is taking on
Lincoln Diaz-Balart in the toughest district of the lot -- R+6.2 (Bush
won it 57-43 in 2004).
Jan Aug
Republican 107,536 110,278
Democrat 76,491 85,635
Total R+31,045 R+24,643
And in FL-25, O2B Democrat Joe Garcia is taking on Mario Diaz-Balart in a R+4.4 district (Bush won it 56-44 in 2004).
Jan Aug
Republican 110,925 114,048
Democrat 97,577 110,424
Total R+13,348 R+3,624
In a series of elections were every vote will count, the GOP's
rapidly eroding voter registration numbers are a telling harbinger of
what's to come. All three of these House elections will be close, as
will Florida's presidential contest. Every voter registration gets us
one step closer to victories that would be game-changing, truly epic.
On the web:
Orange to Blue ActBlue page
Annette Taddeo for Congress
Raul Martinez for Congress
Joe Garcia for Congress
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Friday, June 20, 2008 11:15 AM
Folks,
 I
just sent the email below to the Governor of our great state. I'm
extremely concerned that political expediency is clouding the debate
over an issue that is so important to Florida - keeping oil rigs off
our shores. The bottom line is that no amount of drilling will reduce
gas prices, and politicians shouldn't be giving people this false hope.
Please read my email and help me get the truth out about drilling by writing a letter to the editor of your local paper today.
Governor Crist,
You
and I have worked together on many, many issues. While we don't always
agree, I have always respected you for your willingness to engage an
honest debate and avoid the rank partisanship that has defined our
state for too long.
So it is in that spirit that I urge you to reconsider your support of Senator McCain and President Bush's position to lift the moratorium on
drilling off the shores of Florida. Although I am confident that we
will disagree on who to support for President, we both should be able
to agree that Florida's pristine coastline should not become just
another chit in presidential politics.
What
is most distressing has been the argument that we should lift the ban
because of the high cost of gasoline. It is simply not fair or accurate
to suggest that allowing oil drilling off the Florida coast will do
anything to alleviate the currently oppressive cost of fuel. In fact,
the Bush administration issued a report saying exactly that just last
year, and John McCain himself admitted as recently as three weeks ago
that this would not help consumers at the pump.
I
think your initial instincts on this were right and I urge you to
retreat to your original position that protects our pristine coastlines.
You
and I agree that we should not gamble with our state's economic future.
So let's protect our coastlines by maintaining the moratorium on
drilling off Florida's beaches.
Your friend,
Dan Gelber
I
feel very strongly about this issue, as I'm sure you do. I want lower
gas prices like everybody else, but misinformation and dangerous
policies won't do anything to bring them down.
With
our help, Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States,
and he understands that if we're going to reduce our dependence on
foreign oil, we're going to have to get serious about investing in
clean, renewable sources of energy - not destroying our beaches for a
relatively minute amount of oil.
Don't
let your friends and neighbors be fooled by this political ploy.
Drilling won't reduce gas prices, and we ought not to even consider
risking Florida's tourism-based economy.
Click here to use the Party's Letter-to-the-Editor tool to set the record straight today.
I'll let you know if I hear back from the Governor.
Sincerely,
Dan Gelber
Democratic Leader, Florida House of Representatives
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Wednesday, June 18, 2008 10:17 AM
reprinted from Daily Kosby Larry Thorson
The
news is out on Swing State Project: Raul Martinez and Joe Garcia have
made the list of South Florida candidates-to-back by the Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee. Read it here.
Now,
what does this mean? They will raise more money to continue waging
strong campaigns against the Diaz-Balart brothers, Lincoln in FL-21 and
Mario in FL-25, facing Raul Martinez and Joe Garcia, respectively.
And once again it will put the spotlight on our invulnerable
Democratic U.S. Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL-20) and Kendrick
Meek (FL-17) as to whether they will get wholeheartedly on the team and
campaign for their fellow Democrats. (If you don't know the background
on this, pop back to some of the posts starting in March on this blog and read up.)
This Red-to-Blue development was entirely predictable when this all
started, so I'm wondering still why the Democratic incumbents were so
categorical in their refusals to be on the team.
I also suspect that Garcia and Martinez are doing well partly
because Barack Obama is doing better and better in Florida -- the
coattail effect already showing up. See this morning that Obama is
leading McCain in Florida in a fresh Quinnipiac poll -- and that was probably taken before McCain started talking about drilling for oil spills off Florida's coast.
With strong support from women, blacks and younger voters,
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the apparent Democratic presidential
contender, leads Arizona Sen. John McCain, expected to be the
Republican candidate, among likely voters in Florida, Ohio and
Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing
State polls released today.
This is against all received wise opinion a few months ago. Open your minds, folks.
Now we have to keep working to get Annette Taddeo (FL-18) on the Red
to Blue list and take out my congresswoman, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.
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