From the Orlando Sentinnel - Campaign 2008
No fuzzy math: State Dems sign up voters 7-1 over GOP
Aaron Deslatte |Tallahassee Bureau- July 12, 2008
TALLAHASSEE - John McCain's Florida problems may be growing: Democratic voters have out-registered Republicans by a nearly 7-to-1 margin since January.
State totals show Democrats gained a net of 106,508 voters from January through May, compared with 16,686 for the GOP -- a shift that could muddle any McCain campaign math that banks on a Florida win to gain the White House.
New Democratic registration outnumbered Republicans in six Central Florida counties -- even heavily Republican Seminole County.
"It's a clear sign that Democrats are re-surging in Florida," said political scientist Aubrey Jewett with the University of Central Florida. "I think the numbers certainly should worry the McCain campaign."
In a state with 10.45 million voters, the new figures didn't
significantly change the overall ratio of Democrats to Republicans; the
state is still roughly 41 percent Democrat and 37 percent registered
Republican, with most of the rest No Party Affiliation. That partisan
edge has existed for years, but it hasn't delivered many statewide
victories to Democrats.
In 2004, the state had roughly 360,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans -- and
George W. Bush defeated
John Kerry by 380,000 votes.
Still, this year's figures are an ominous sign for Republicans. The new
voters materialized without any large-scale state party registration
drives or even a settled candidate atop the Democratic ticket.
"It's a huge swing," says Marian Johnson, the veteran political
director for the Florida Chamber of Commerce. "I looked at that and
said, 'Wow.' "
Tallahassee GOP strategist
David Johnson said that, at the least, the numbers should prompt Republicans to ramp up registration efforts.
But Florida GOP spokeswoman Katherine Gordon noted that in 2004, the
party got more new voters to the polls than Democrats did even though
the GOP registered 60,000 fewer new voters.
"Will so many new voters register and actually vote that they can
outpace the tested Republican grass-roots machine that essentially
hasn't lost a targeted statewide race in 10 years?" she said.
"Doubtful."
County elections supervisors said the spike in Democratic registration
was partly because of earlier-than-usual registration drives by
third-party groups such as the League of Women Voters and ACORN, the
Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, which targets
black and Hispanic voters. The groups were trying to get ahead of a
2007 law that dramatically increases fines on third-party groups that
don't turn in registration applications within 10 days.
The law has yet to take effect because the League and two labor unions
filed suit to block it, arguing it discriminates against minorities who
rely more heavily than whites on third-party organizations to register
to vote. A ruling is expected soon.
"We wanted to get as many people registered as we could before the
[state] started enforcing the law," said Marilynn Wills, state
president of the League of Women Voters.
Meanwhile, ACORN, which organizes low-income voters, says it has
already turned in about 123,000 registration forms in Central and South
Florida -- where Democratic gains this year have been the biggest.
"People are looking at their pocketbook, and they really want to see a
change," said Carolyn Patmon, an ACORN volunteer leader from Orlando.
Orange County Elections Supervisor Bill Cowles credited ACORN and
groups like it for most of the nearly 12,000 new Democratic voters so
far this year, compared with a loss of 2,500 registered Republicans.
Nationally, Democratic voter registration and turnout surged this year during the heated, months-long primary contest between
Barack Obama and
Hillary Clinton.
Florida officials were stunned when a record 1.75 million Democrats
voted in the state's Jan. 29 primary even though no Democrat campaigned
in the state.
Aaron Deslatte can be reached at adeslatte@orlandosentinel.com or 850-222-5564.